Plan B

Watching the world (LA county) burn down via the internets while reading The Ministry of the Future (MOF) was a scary parallel. MOF is a non-fiction fiction book by Kim Stanley Robinson that explores the tangible impacts of impending climate change and how governments can effectively, or ineffectively, respond to these changes. The LA fires are reminiscent of the first scene in the book where an entire area is facing an unprecedented climate disaster that the government cannot handle. People are suffering due to wholly man-made situations and this book does an amazing job of expanding on how people will suffer while also offering tangible solutions on a broader scale. The key tenents of this book are as follows: in order to triage climate change, existing global system will need to be modified rather than creating new ones to quickly make changes; a “Plan B” needs to already be in place or prepared when emergency situations arise; and the only rules are the ones you can enforce.

Big Picture

Reinventing global systems to better respond to climate change is an agreeable idea but a wholly Sisyphean task as it would require dissolving the current global hegemony in exchange for a more cohesive, cooperative global order. Even within the book’s hypothetical situation, this isn’t achieved until all the major nations are facing dire climate challenges, not just the occasional climate disaster people forget about in a few months.

The specific idea proposed by the book is to create government-backed bonds that are valued against carbon sequestration efforts in different parts of the world built on blockchain technology. This idea is valid in principal and serves as the ideal bridge between the current financial systems and new paradigm rooted in concern for our climate. It would allow anyone to make money from small-scale carbon sequestration efforts while creating a large market for institutional investors to divest their money into a stable investment prospect with long-term gains. But it lacks the critical thing needed to make it happen: the support of the rule of law. Without key governments around the world backing the program, there would be no hope of this plan working as all of these governments only seek to preserve themselves.

Backup

Moving onto the idea of a “Plan B,” disaster capitalism has become a means for the ruling class to further introduce neoliberal policies in vulnerable areas during extreme situations. As it stands now, this economic shock therapy is the current “Plan B,” but Robinson posits that communities and governments must be prepared for disasters and have a viable backup plan. Many of these disasters can be seen coming a mile away – extreme droughts in the Mexican capital, fires in California, and general economic insolvency in the west. What can communities and governments do to prepare for the inevitable?

During the LA wildfires, many people saw their homes go up in flames instantaneously hoping their insurance would cover the payments to rebuild. For the historically Black community of Altadena, the aftermath of the Eaton fire could be a kaizen event in the gentrification process of historically Black and Brown communities across LA. There could be a large, instant exodus for many families in this area as they get large cash offers for their homes from large developers. This community however has started implementing their “Plan B” by creating land trusts representing a few families that buy land and move forward this the developer of their choosing on their timeline (Altadena Communities Unite). This simple move could be the difference of rebuilding Altadena as a community versus "revitalizing" Altadena with yuppies and teslas. This strategy was also employed in Maui after their devastating fires and several other communities affected by natural disasters to great affect.

Looking forward, how might we expect natural disasters to affect our communities and how can we better prepare? Could preemptive community trusts provide stability within vulnerable communities in harms way? These alternative strategies must be centered in community as decision making is most effective on a localized level. Communities know what communities need best and impending economic, social, and environmental pressures will continue to strain vulnerable communities for years to come. Without a vision for the future, many areas may fall prey to the neoliberal order.

From a macro point of view, our current economic order in the west will likely become insolvent in due to mounting environmental pressures. In California, insurance companies have been slowly leaving disaster-prone areas due to high cost, leaving many without affordable home insurance options. This has created a situation where state governments are forced to create their own state-sponsored insurance funds (such as the California FAIR act) in order to fill the void left insurers leaving the state. If the current climate disaster trajectory continues, it could become difficult or impossible for many insurance companies to operate and could potentially collapse the house market as it becomes impossible to sell homes. Our governments know and understand the current economic landscape is not sustainable, but few cohesive solutions have been presented as the we stare down the reality of increased climate vulnerability. there does not seem to be any makings of a “Plan B” on a larger scale so it will be left to the will of the people to create the change we want to see.

Rulers

Most importantly in all of this is rule of law. Rule of law is any entity created to protect and uphold the specified rules in a given system. In MOF, this issue arises when large nations violate treaty agreements and there are not enforceable repercussions. Without these repercussions, any sort of legal agreement is simply words on a page. The only rules are the ones you can enforce. Robinson’s solution to this is the continual attack and breaking down of this ruling order on all fronts. Without the ability to enforce the rules bestowed upon us, the will of the people, not the ruling class grows stronger.

Final Notes

Robinson creates a wonderfully written non-fiction fiction book that reflects a world in line with trajectory made over the past two centuries. It will likely take climate disasters and violence coming to the doorsteps of the ruling class to see any effective change, but before this, communities can organize themselves before tragedy is here. It will be the will of the people who can effect this changes, not the shortsightedness of government and business.